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The Nigerian equity market ended the third quarter’s final trading session in the red, as key performance indicators, the NGX-ASI fell by -0.28%, and Market Capitalization dropped by -0.22%, ahead of the Independence Day break. Despite this, the local bourse recorded a robust +9.50% growth in Q3’2026, driving a yearto-date (YTD) return of +61.43%. Investors’ wealth expanded by ₦15.89 trillion during the quarter, underscoring the market’s resilience. Heavy selloffs in major stocks such as MTNN, HBMNG, STANBIC, and others contributed to today’s decline, with the market index (All-Share Index) shedding 701.53 basis points, reflecting a -0.28% decrease, to close at 251,211.67, while Market Capitalization also declined by ₦425.74 billion, to settle at ₦163.10 trillion. While today’s session reflected short-term profit-taking, the broader quarterly performance highlights strong investor confidence, thereby positioning the market for potential momentum in the final quarter of the year.
Furthermore, market activities were up today, as the Total Volume and Total Value traded increased by +91.80% and +59.01% respectively. Approximately 1,032.42 million units valued at ₦53,369.67 million were transacted across 44,236 deals. VFDGROUP was the most traded stock in terms of volume, accounting for 41.93% of the total volume of trades, followed by ABBEYBANK (8.27%), CHAMS (7.29%), GTCO (4.51%), and OANDO (3.97%) to complete the top 5 on the volume chart. GTCO emerged as the most traded stock in value terms, with 16.33% of the total value of trades on the exchange.
HMCALL topped the advancers’ chart for today with a price appreciation of 10.00 percent, trailed by CMFC (+9.92%) growth, CORNERST (+9.80%), LIVINGTRUST (+9.79%), ABCTRANS (+9.76%), ROYALEX (+9.52%) and eighteen others. Twenty-eight (28) stocks depreciated, where LEARNAFRCA was the top loser, with a price depreciation of -10.00%, as FIDELITYBK (-6.07%), ELLAHLAKES (-3.49%), MTNN (-3.01%), ACCESSCORP (-2.25%), and HBMNG (-1.53%) also dipped in price. In that regard, the market breadth closed negatively, recording 24 gainers and 28 losers.
In addition, the market sectoral performance was positive today, as three out of the five major market sectors were up, led by the Industrial sector, which increased by (+0.66%), followed by the Consumer goods and Oil & Gas sectors, both grew by 0.04%. The Insurance and Banking sectors declined by -1.01% and -0.36% accordingly.
Following the recently released data by NBS, the country’s GDP stood at 3.89% in Q1’2026, marking a 18bps decline from the 4.07% recorded in Q4’2025. However, on a year-on-year basis, the growth rate in the first quarter of the year reflects a 78bps improvement compared to the 3.13% posted in Q1’ 2025.
Sectoral GDP Dynamics: Oil vs. Non-Oil
The non-oil sector contributed 96.08% to total GDP in Q1’2026 a decline from 97.13% in Q4 2025, but higher than 96.03% recorded in Q1 2025. Conversely, the Oil sector’s contribution increased by 1.05% to 3.92% in Q1’2026, from 2.87% in Q4 2025, but dropped by 0.05% when compared to 3.97% contributed in Q1’2025, due to reduction in crude oil production compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, in terms of growth, the Oil sector receded by 4.22% points, recording a growth rate of 2.57% in Q1’2026, compared to 6.79% in Q4’2025. Likewise, the non-oil sector recorded real GDP growth of 3.94%, down by 0.05% points compared to 3.99% in Q4’2025.
The country’s crude oil production averaged 1.55mbpd in Q1’2026, which was lower than the daily average crude oil production of 1.62mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025, and 0.03mbpd lower than the Q4’2025 production volume of 1.58mbpd.
Mixed Narrative in the Agricultural Sector
Agricultural sector posted a real growth rate of 3.15% in Q1’2026, a decline of 85bps from 4.00% growth recorded in Q4’2025. However, the sector’s performance expanded by 3.08% points when compared to Q1’2025, when it grew by 0.07%. The 85bps decline from the 4.00% growth recorded in Q4’2025 is a typical seasonal phenomenon in Nigerian agriculture. Q4 marks the peak main harvest season across the country, where crop production maximizes output, whereas Q1 marks the dry season and planting cycle, resulting in lower output momentum. In addition, the sector contribution to the GDP dropped, standing at 23.16% in Q1’2026, which was 550bps lower than 28.66% recorded in Q4’2025.
